A value model, coaching/player tendencies, and out-of-sample draft-strategy backtests off nflverse play-by-play. Generated 2026-07-01. Edges are modest, tiebreaker-sized, and relative to ADP — reading, not gospel.
One board across positions: each buy's within-position score scaled by its long-run edge (WR ×3, RB ×27, QB ×1) — the simple 2013–24 average separation, which beat era/recency weighting in a walk-forward. So RB value plays top the board (sturdiest edge); WR is real but boom/bust; QB is noise. Vol = weekly floor–ceiling shape (roster-balance lens, not a value edge). Context = the prior-season injury/O-line caveat the rating is blind to — verify names.
| Pos | Player | Team | ADP | Value | Vol (floor–ceil) | Prior-yr context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Rico Dowdle | PIT | 74.0 | 17.4 | BOOM 5–23 | OL sack-3.6 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | 84.6 | 11.0 | bal 7–15 | 12g hip (recurs), season-ending -> AVOID / QB hurt / OL sack+2.8 |
| RB | RJ Harvey | DEN | 84.9 | 11.0 | BOOM 6–22 | – |
| RB | Rachaad White | WAS | 98.6 | 10.5 | bal 5–13 | QB hurt |
| RB | Kenneth Gainwell | TB | 98.0 | 8.3 | BOOM 6–23 | – |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 80.6 | 6.4 | BOOM 4–17 | – |
| RB | Woody Marks | HOU | 141.8 | 6.4 | BOOM 5–16 | QB hurt / OL sack-3.6 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | NO | 145.7 | 6.2 | bal 6–14 | 11g knee (re-tear risk), season-ending -> AVOID / QB hurt |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 75.7 | 5.9 | BOOM 5–22 | – |
| RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 152.3 | 5.1 | BOOM 6–18 | QB hurt |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 35.5 | 3.1 | steady 9–15 | 10g quadricep (recurs ~17%) -> AVOID / QB hurt |
| WR | Ricky Pearsall | SF | 104.1 | 2.6 | BOOM 3–15 | 9g knee (re-tear risk) -> buy-low / QB hurt / OL sack-1.9 |
| WR | Christian Watson | GB | 61.2 | 2.4 | BOOM 7–22 | 10g knee (re-tear risk) -> buy-low |
| WR | Parker Washington | JAX | 73.6 | 2.3 | BOOM 6–19 | – |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | 26.5 | 2.2 | steady 12–25 | 8g concussion (repeat-risk) -> buy-low |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | 65.5 | 1.7 | bal 6–18 | QB hurt |
Ascending returning WR (5–22% prior role) on a high-vacancy team (league median 22%). A new QB resets the role-trend. TE = a target-hog tight end shrinks the WR pie (×0.8, or ×0.6 on a bad offense).
| WR | Team | ADP | Pos# | Role | Δrole | Vacancy | QB | TE | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 35.5 | WR14 | 14% | reset | 43% | new | – | 96 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | 104.1 | WR46 | 10% | reset | 31% | new | – | 80 |
| Christian Watson | GB | 61.2 | WR27 | 12% | +0% | 34% | ? | – | 74 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | 73.6 | WR35 | 18% | +8% | 24% | same | – | 71 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 26.5 | WR11 | 14% | +9% | 31% | same | TE 27% | 69 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | 65.5 | WR31 | 16% | +2% | 28% | ? | TE 26% | 53 |
Backfield opportunity is priced for RBs — the pulse is a discounted
RB (RB25+) with a pass-catching role × backfield clarity (clear lead +18.3 vs
committee +2.1). +GL = owns the goal line (volatile TD ceiling, not a floor).
| RB | Team | ADP | Pos# | Recv role | Backfield | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | PIT | 74.0 | RB26 | 54% | lead | 65 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | 84.6 | RB30 | 53% | committee | 41 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 84.9 | RB31 | 50% | committee +GL | 41 |
| Rachaad White | WAS | 98.6 | RB34 | 49% | committee +GL | 39 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | TB | 98.0 | RB33 | 64% | backup | 31 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 80.6 | RB29 | 42% | committee | 24 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 141.8 | RB40 | 47% | backup +GL | 24 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 145.7 | RB42 | 51% | backup | 23 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 75.7 | RB28 | 45% | backup +GL | 22 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | 152.3 | RB43 | 48% | backup | 19 |
QB has no value edge (prior production & rushing both priced). The only tilt: among startable QBs (QB1–12), runners return cost (+7.3) vs pocket passers (−2.6). A tiebreaker — and see the Backtests tab: streaming keeps pace with drafting one.
| QB | Team | ADP | Pos# | Rush yds/g | Tier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 31.0 | QB1 | 37 | elite-run | 37 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 52.0 | QB3 | 28 | dual-threat | 28 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 79.6 | QB5 | 31 | elite-run | 31 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 80.8 | QB6 | 28 | dual-threat | 28 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 83.0 | QB7 | 32 | elite-run | 32 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 84.9 | QB8 | 40 | elite-run | 40 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 91.1 | QB9 | 27 | dual-threat | 27 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 99.1 | QB11 | 22 | dual-threat | 22 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 99.1 | QB12 | 17 | dual-threat | 17 |
Each coach's expected pass rate % as the game script shifts from big favorite → pick'em → underdog (spread is the pre-game script proxy). A wide spread across the row = script-sensitive; PROE@even = pass-over-expected at a coin-flip game = the genuine pass-lean regardless of script. Recency-weighted, shrunk to the league for thin histories. Reading is a scheme identity, not a value edge (coach PROE is priced into ADP).
| Team | Coach | fav −7 | pick'em | dog +7 | PROE@even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Zac Taylor | 59% | 62% | 66% | +2.4 |
| KC | Andy Reid | 58% | 61% | 64% | +3.7 |
| LA | Sean McVay | 55% | 59% | 63% | -0.8 |
| HOU | DeMeco Ryans | 54% | 59% | 64% | -1.3 |
| LAC | Jim Harbaugh | 53% | 59% | 65% | -0.4 |
| DEN | Sean Payton | 55% | 59% | 62% | -0.6 |
| JAX | Liam Coen | 53% | 58% | 63% | -0.7 |
| DET | Dan Campbell | 53% | 58% | 62% | -4.0 |
| TB | Todd Bowles | 52% | 58% | 63% | -1.9 |
| MIN* | Kevin O'Connell | 53% | 58% | 62% | -1.8 |
| ARI* | Jonathan Gannon | 53% | 58% | 62% | -1.9 |
| LV* | Pete Carroll | 53% | 57% | 62% | -2.0 |
| SEA* | Mike Macdonald | 52% | 57% | 62% | -2.3 |
| SF* | Kyle Shanahan | 52% | 57% | 62% | -2.1 |
| DAL* | Brian Schottenheimer | 53% | 57% | 62% | -2.2 |
| CLE* | Kevin Stefanski | 52% | 57% | 62% | -2.5 |
| PIT* | Mike Tomlin | 53% | 57% | 62% | -2.4 |
| NO* | Kellen Moore | 52% | 57% | 62% | -2.3 |
| IND* | Shane Steichen | 53% | 57% | 62% | -2.5 |
| TEN* | Brian Callahan | 52% | 57% | 62% | -2.7 |
| NE | Mike Vrabel | 52% | 57% | 62% | -1.3 |
| MIA | Mike McDaniel | 52% | 57% | 62% | -3.3 |
| ATL* | Raheem Morris | 52% | 57% | 62% | -3.0 |
| NYG* | Brian Daboll | 52% | 57% | 61% | -2.6 |
| CHI | Ben Johnson | 52% | 56% | 61% | -2.9 |
| NYJ* | Aaron Glenn | 52% | 56% | 61% | -3.0 |
| WAS* | Dan Quinn | 52% | 56% | 60% | -2.5 |
| PHI | Nick Sirianni | 50% | 56% | 61% | -2.9 |
| CAR | Dave Canales | 50% | 55% | 61% | -3.9 |
| GB | Matt LaFleur | 50% | 55% | 59% | -4.1 |
| BUF | Sean McDermott | 50% | 55% | 59% | -1.9 |
| BAL | John Harbaugh | 47% | 52% | 57% | -6.5 |
* = new primary QB for 2025 (15 teams) — the coach's learned tendency is discounted toward league average (it doesn't carry across a QB change: same-QB PROE carries at +0.44, new-QB at −0.14).
Where each QB lives, from play-by-play (≥200 attempts). aDOT = mean air yards; deepOut% = deep & to a sideline (gunslinger pole); shortMid% = short & middle (rhythm pole). A QB's air profile is a stable identity (aDOT persists +0.47 y/y) — useful context (a deep-outside QB drives his WRs boom/bust), but priced, not an edge.
| QB | Att | aDOT | deep% | mid% | deepOut% | shortMid% | comp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Mariota | 225 | 10.2 | 31% | 18% | 25% | 13% | 62% |
| M.Stafford | 594 | 9.1 | 27% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 65% |
| D.Maye | 492 | 9.1 | 25% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 72% |
| J.Hurts | 452 | 9.0 | 23% | 16% | 18% | 12% | 65% |
| J.Love | 438 | 8.8 | 24% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 66% |
| L.Jackson | 300 | 8.8 | 26% | 24% | 21% | 19% | 64% |
| J.McCarthy | 243 | 8.8 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 14% | 58% |
| T.Lawrence | 557 | 8.8 | 25% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 61% |
| C.Williams | 566 | 8.7 | 25% | 22% | 19% | 16% | 58% |
| T.Shough | 324 | 8.4 | 21% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 68% |
| M.Penix | 276 | 8.3 | 24% | 11% | 21% | 8% | 60% |
| J.Dart | 338 | 8.2 | 21% | 25% | 17% | 21% | 64% |
| B.Mayfield | 542 | 8.1 | 22% | 20% | 18% | 16% | 63% |
| C.Stroud | 420 | 8.1 | 19% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 65% |
| P.Mahomes | 500 | 8.1 | 22% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 63% |
| D.Prescott | 597 | 8.1 | 21% | 19% | 15% | 14% | 68% |
| D.Jones | 382 | 8.0 | 21% | 19% | 17% | 15% | 68% |
| S.Rattler | 254 | 8.0 | 20% | 21% | 17% | 18% | 69% |
| S.Darnold | 473 | 7.9 | 19% | 22% | 16% | 20% | 68% |
| J.Herbert | 512 | 7.8 | 19% | 22% | 16% | 20% | 66% |
| J.Brissett | 484 | 7.6 | 20% | 21% | 15% | 16% | 65% |
| B.Purdy | 284 | 7.6 | 18% | 26% | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| M.Jones | 286 | 7.4 | 19% | 27% | 14% | 22% | 70% |
| J.Flacco | 412 | 7.4 | 21% | 30% | 17% | 26% | 61% |
| B.Nix | 611 | 7.3 | 20% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 64% |
| J.Allen | 459 | 7.3 | 21% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 69% |
| C.Ward | 537 | 7.3 | 20% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 60% |
| J.Burrow | 259 | 7.2 | 16% | 19% | 13% | 15% | 67% |
Per-team snap rates from NGS participation charting. 11=1RB/1TE/3WR, 12=1RB/2TE/2WR, heavy=2+ backs/3+ TE; shotgun/under-center formation rates; light box=defense showed ≤6 in the box (a run-friendly look). Scheme context for a player's usage environment.
| Team | 11 pers | 12 pers | heavy | shotgun | under-C | light box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 71% | 17% | 8% | 71% | 27% | 72% |
| TB | 70% | 20% | 4% | 62% | 34% | 75% |
| HOU | 70% | 8% | 10% | 62% | 38% | 68% |
| NO | 68% | 12% | 11% | 77% | 20% | 74% |
| JAX | 68% | 19% | 5% | 59% | 38% | 73% |
| NYJ | 68% | 17% | 8% | 70% | 26% | 64% |
| CAR | 67% | 20% | 10% | 60% | 32% | 65% |
| DAL | 66% | 16% | 5% | 62% | 36% | 68% |
| CIN | 65% | 30% | 1% | 80% | 17% | 77% |
| IND | 64% | 25% | 10% | 69% | 27% | 70% |
| DEN | 63% | 11% | 15% | 61% | 35% | 71% |
| MIN | 63% | 20% | 7% | 56% | 44% | 72% |
| BUF | 63% | 11% | 18% | 50% | 48% | 59% |
| PHI | 62% | 26% | 8% | 71% | 22% | 63% |
| NYG | 62% | 33% | 5% | 71% | 22% | 70% |
| LAC | 61% | 6% | 13% | 67% | 29% | 66% |
| DET | 60% | 23% | 7% | 52% | 48% | 66% |
| LA | 60% | 9% | 31% | 42% | 57% | 62% |
| LV | 58% | 34% | 8% | 64% | 33% | 75% |
| WAS | 58% | 22% | 13% | 72% | 11% | 71% |
| KC | 58% | 28% | 9% | 78% | 18% | 79% |
| CHI | 53% | 31% | 12% | 52% | 46% | 67% |
| NE | 52% | 19% | 11% | 57% | 43% | 60% |
| GB | 52% | 30% | 4% | 57% | 36% | 67% |
| ARI | 48% | 29% | 17% | 70% | 28% | 72% |
| ATL | 45% | 38% | 7% | 48% | 19% | 70% |
| CLE | 45% | 42% | 9% | 66% | 32% | 67% |
| SF | 44% | 11% | 8% | 53% | 45% | 70% |
| SEA | 43% | 29% | 12% | 44% | 53% | 57% |
| PIT | 41% | 25% | 22% | 66% | 32% | 64% |
| MIA | 35% | 10% | 15% | 53% | 28% | 67% |
| BAL | 31% | 36% | 14% | 61% | 34% | 50% |
LEVEL is priced, CHANGE is the edge. A standing stat is already baked into ADP and a player's own prior-year numbers, so modeling it double-counts — it shows ~no edge. Only a forward change not yet in the prior outcomes is exploitable. That's why the draft is largely efficient (the surviving strategies are consensus) and the real edge is in-season. Every number below is out-of-sample 2014–2024, PPR, relative-to-ADP; edges are modest.
Starting the biggest pre-game favorite among QBs you didn't draft in the top 50 keeps pace with an early-drafted QB — and it survives a streaming-heavy league.
| strategy | pts/wk | QB1-week% | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| stream biggest favorite | 18.8 | 52% | the cheap play |
| — if 2 rivals stream (3rd-best) | 18.1 | 50% | barely dented |
| avg drafted QB (ADP≤50) | 20.4 | — | ~1.5/wk more, for a pick |
When to draft one: only a genuine top-3 QB (going ~picks 20–38) beats streaming, and only by ~1.3–1.7/game. QB4–7 are a wash; QB8+ is worse than streaming. Favoredness predicts QB points (corr +0.22; favorite 18 vs underdog 14).
Draft archetypes land within ~1% on total points, but front-loading RB is the worst and the trend has moved against it. Edge vs best-available, by era:
| strategy | 2014–17 | 2018–20 | 2021–24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robust-RB (RB rds 1–2) | +2 | −30 | −3 |
| Hero-RB (1 RB, then WR) | −1 | +13 | +0 |
| Zero-RB (no RB early) | −1 | +12 | +8 |
RB scarcity is mostly a myth: the elite-to-replacement (VBD) premium is identical for RB and WR (+7.1 ppg). It's real only at RB1 (25.2 ppg, the single best asset → take one elite back) and via injury (40% of top-24 RBs miss time vs 26% for WRs). Drafting your first 3 picks all-RB costs ~30 points vs all-WR. So: lock one elite RB, then go WR-heavy, and be the mid-season buyer of RBs, not the one who overpaid to draft fragile ones.
You win weeks, not points, so the volatility shape matters. Holding mean constant (only the variance mix varies):
| build | as favorite (win%) | as underdog (win%) | smash-week% |
|---|---|---|---|
| all steady | 69% | 39% | 7% |
| all boom-bust | 61% | 39% | 14% |
| floor-early / ceiling-late | 66% | 39% | 11% |
| steady + 1–2 boom | 67% | 39% | 9% |
At even strength the mix is ~neutral (variance doesn't beat a coin flip). Its value is directional: favorites want steady (lock in the edge); underdogs & the playoffs want ceiling (smash weeks beat elite teams). Best structure: anchor your studs steady, take boom-bust swings in the late/replaceable slots. Boom-bust in your stud slots is the worst build.
The draft is efficient; the waiver wire is not — it rewards speed and activity, not information ADP already has. This is the one genuinely unpriced edge.
Confirmation curve — given a waiver player's last weeks were startable, odds his next game is startable:
| after… | P(next startable) | next-game pts |
|---|---|---|
| any waiver game (base) | 15% | 6.0 |
| 1 startable week | 33% | 10.5 |
| 2 startable weeks | 42% | 12.4 |
| 3 startable weeks | 46% | 13.3 |
One startable week doubles the odds; confirmation has steep diminishing returns. ~28 flex / ~13 solid-starter breakouts surface off waivers each season, most by week 4. React fast and churn — a wrong dart costs nothing (drop him), but waiting loses you the player and 50+ points. Waiting for confirmation is the trap.
Opportunity trigger — when a drafted starter is ruled Out (known pre-game), grab his backup on the news. Measured leak-free (the predictable prior-weeks #2):
| position | backup pts | lift vs baseline | startable% | grabbable off waivers% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB handcuff | 11.1 | +4.7 | 46% | 67% |
| WR (a dart) | 10.7 | +1.1 | 35% | 59% |
The RB handcuff on an injury is the highest-confidence claim in fantasy — grab it the moment the starter is Out, no confirmation needed. WR triggers are a dart (vacated targets scatter, so you can't tell which WR benefits).
Coach PROE · raw target share / WOPR · RB goal-line volume · RB game-script (every form) · TE blocking · TE→RB and QB→RB vulturing · early-down run/pass mix · new-play-caller reset · front-zone explosiveness · explosive-play rate · rushing-TD funnel · team EPA/quality · WR target-location mix · QB air profile · prior production / "proven-discounted WR" · a cheap WR on a good-QB team · aggregate-total gains from any draft archetype or stack. The pattern: team environment and standing production are priced; only player-level opportunity changes (vacated targets, ascending role, QB change, committee shift) survive.